- Tata Motors shares fell more than 9.22% to Rs 950.30 on Monday.
- Total market capitalization stood at more than Rs 3.15 lakh crore.
- The company posted a 222% year-on-year (YoY) increase in consolidated net profit at Rs 17,407 crore.
- Revenue from operations increased by 13% to Rs 1.2 lakh crore.
Key Points:
- Revenue & Profit:
- Consolidated net profit: Rs 17,407 crore (up 222% YoY).
- Revenue from operations: Rs 1.2 lakh crore (up 13% YoY).
- Market Reaction:
- Shares plunged by 9.22% to Rs 950.30.
- Previous trading session close: Rs 1046.85.
- 52-week low: Stock rallied over 100% from this point.
- Performance Analysis:
- Consolidated EBITDA missed Street estimates.
- Weak domestic commercial vehicle (CV) business performance impacted results.
- JLR and domestic passenger vehicle (PV) business EBITDA met expectations.
- Generated Free Cash Flow (FCF) of Rs 26,900 crore in FY24.
- Significant reduction in consolidated net debt; on track to be net cash positive by FY25E.
- Future Outlook:
- FY2025-26 performance expected to be steady.
- JLR business to see improvement in mix and cost control measures.
- Market share gain in PV and CV segments anticipated.
- Kotak Institutional Equities: ‘Add’ rating with fair value of Rs 1,100.
- Brokerage Views:
- Motilal Oswal Financial Services: ‘Neutral’ rating; revised target price of Rs 970.
- Nuvama Institutional Equities: ‘Reduce’ rating; target price of Rs 940.
- JM Financial: ‘Buy’ rating; target price of Rs 1,200.
- Nomura: Downgraded to ‘neutral’; target price of Rs 1,141.
- JPMorgan: ‘Overweight’ rating; target price of Rs 1,115.
- Jefferies: ‘Buy’ call; target price of Rs 1,250.
- Morgan Stanley: Downgraded to ‘equal-weight’; target price of Rs 1,100.
Table: Q4 FY24 Performance Overview
| Metric | Q4 FY23 | Q4 FY24 | YoY Change |
|---|---|---|---|
| Consolidated Net Profit | Rs 5,405 crore | Rs 17,407 crore | +222% |
| Revenue from Operations | Rs 1.06 lakh cr | Rs 1.2 lakh cr | +13% |
| Consolidated EBITDA Margin | 13.9% | 14.2% | +0.3% |
| JLR Order Book (Units) | 1,48,000 | 1,33,000 | -10.1% |
| Free Cash Flow (FCF) Generated | N/A | Rs 26,900 crore | N/A |
| Target Price Range by Analysts | Rs 940 – Rs 1,250 | N/A | N/A |
Revised Target Prices by Analysts:
- Kotak Institutional Equities: Rs 1,100
- Motilal Oswal Financial Services: Rs 970
- Nuvama Institutional Equities: Rs 940
- JM Financial: Rs 1,200
- Nomura: Rs 1,141
- JPMorgan: Rs 1,115
- Jefferies: Rs 1,250
- Morgan Stanley: Rs 1,100
Overall Sentiment:
- Mixed reactions with some analysts downgrading the stock due to concerns over demand and rising costs, while others remain bullish on the long-term prospects driven by JLR performance and strong FCF generation.
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